Bitwise's head of alpha strategies, Jeff Park, projects an increase in the value of Bitcoin's price if Donald Trump is elected president for the second time in the upcoming 2024 elections in the United States. On October 22, Park provided insights on X by analysing Bitcoin's correlation with Trump's betting ratio on Polymarket.
Using merger arbitrage probability calculations, he considers that a Trump win would push Bitcoin to around $92,000. This forecast aligns with other analysts' expectations, who have high expectations for Trump to boost crypto significantly through his crypto-friendly policies.
The value of Bitcoin has frequently followed significant political and economic developments. Since, Trump's campaign promised to deregulate sectors and make the United States a global cryptocurrency hub, investors have been interested.
For the most part, Trump's approach is quite different from the current practice under SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whom the former has vowed to fire if he becomes president again. This potential shift in policy has paved the way for a buzz among crypto aficionados and investors seeking a favourable regulatory change.
This relationship between politics and the market is getting clearer as Trump continues to lead his campaign to support cryptocurrencies. His promises to shift the US to become the "crypto capital of the world" and fire the current SEC chair are seen as appealing to a significant part of the crypto audience. Some people within this group believe his election presents a chance for easing the rules and more growth in the digital assets sector.
However, opinions on how President Trump's policies affect the cryptocurrency markets in the long run are still divided among experts. While some, like Erik Finman, suggest that such policies would charge the market further and push the price of bitcoins even higher, critics like billionaire investor Mark Cuban point out that any form of a boost these policies may bring about will only be temporary.
Cuban points to Trump's other measures, such as import tariffs, to argue that though Trump has boosted the market in the short run, they have the potential to cause inflation and, therefore, have a negative impact on the market.
The current election cycle has also seen unprecedented crypto involvement in donations. A political action committee (PAC) supporting Trump has reportedly raised about $7.5 million in cryptocurrencies. This marks a significant embrace of digital assets within political fundraising, reflecting a broader trend of crypto's integration into mainstream finance. Notably, the crypto sector has substantially contributed to the election, with figures like Coinbase and Ripple playing significant roles.
Surveys indicate a divide in political support among crypto owners, with a significant majority favouring Trump, possibly due to his crypto-friendly stance. In contrast, those without crypto investments tend to support Kamala Harris, who leads in national polls despite Trump's edge in betting markets.