Ahead of the US presidential election, betting markets have displayed shifts in odds, according to Polymarket. Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has had a rise in her probability of victory. As of October 30, the odds of Harris were at 33%; those have increased to nearly 39%. At the same time, odds for her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, have decreased, suggesting a change in traders' outlook and the stock market sentiment.
Polymarket is a decentralized blockchain-based prediction market through which people can purchase stakes as a result of numerous phenomena, including political races. The platform's operational structure allows for dynamic pricing linked to users' trades, which are processed on an order book in the blockchain.
This system mirrors traditional asset exchanges, where liquidity and large trades can cause substantial price movements. Notably, a single large transaction last week temporarily pushed Trump's shares to an improbable 99%.
The increase in Harris' odds may be part of a hedging strategy employed by traders who hold positions on both sides of the electoral outcome. This approach is evident from the surge in large-scale trades, exceeding $10,000, involving Harris's "yes" shares and Trump's "no" shares in the past 12 hours. Such strategies cushion financial impacts, ensuring gains regardless of the election's result.
In addition to hedging, some market participants have identified arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and other betting platforms like Robinhood Securities. Traders are capitalizing on price discrepancies across these platforms to secure profits, a tactic highlighted by user interactions on social platforms like X (formerly Twitter). These discussions reveal the sophisticated financial manoeuvres players are willing to employ amid the highly charged election atmosphere.
The betting odds have also been influenced by broader political and economic contexts, including allegations of voting irregularities, which have been robustly debated in public forums and social media. These allegations, primarily pushed by Trump and his allies, claim disadvantages in key states and have stirred significant public and media attention.
The political turmoil has coincided with fluctuations in financial markets, demonstrated by a 4.4% drop in the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a metric tracking major cryptocurrencies, which some analysts attribute to the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome.