In an already well-developed environment of financial speculation and online gambling, opinion trading platforms are now fast becoming a new player. These apps are sometimes described as 'predicting and profiting' platforms; users are allowed to bet, stakes they place on the outcome of real events such as cricket matches and elections or the outcome of economic trends. High-profile names such as Probo and Mantra Labs have fast gained millions of users, especially among India's young tech-literate population. But as the platform blurs the distinction between skill-based gaming and gambling, a fierce debate has broken out across legal, financial, and consumer protection communities. Are these online forums merely a harmless way to prove users' smarts, or are they legalised gambling in disguise, masquerading as innovation?
Opinion trading apps exist in a regulatory vacuum. India's Public Gambling Act of 1867 prohibits betting and wagering in all but a few forms, but it excludes games of skill. Most opinion trading platforms take advantage of this legal loophole, presenting themselves as skill-based platforms where users place 'informed decisions' rather than guesses.
Nonetheless, consumer associations such as the New Indian Consumer Initiative (NICI) and trade associations like the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) vehemently differ. They state that the all-or-nothing nature of wagers, win or lose, brings down these sites to digital gambling, or 'satta', irrespective of the extent of skill proclaimed. Even the Supreme Court revived a plea against these apps after the Gujarat High Court rejected it, indicating increasing judicial interest in bringing unregulated online speculation under the leash.
Actively promoted as a passive profit source, opinion trading sites normally entice traders with phrases like 'guaranteed returns' and 'auto profits.' They appeal particularly strongly to economically desperate or inexperienced individuals. However, experts warn about the speculative game aspect of this form of bets, which resembles high-stakes derivatives gaming without benefitting from regulation.
Transaction volumes are reportedly over ₹50,000 crore every year, and the majority of users do not make profits. Indeed, a 2024 SEBI advisory cautioned against unregulated online trading mechanisms that replicate financial instruments in the absence of regulatory sanction. The mechanisms are opaque regarding odds, market making, and attendant risks, exposing users to hefty and, at times, irreversible losses.
It's not merely money that is involved. Behavioural psychologists caution that the rush of dopamine from frequent wins, or desperation of frequent losses, can entrap users in compulsive gambling. The excitement of guessing the results of a continuous series of events can be habit-forming, particularly when minor wins lead to larger, more perilous wagers.
Families and consumer support groups have reported cases of individuals falling into debt, skipping work, or suffering mental health issues due to compulsive opinion trading. With India already grappling with concerns around online gaming addiction among youth, these platforms may be pushing an already fragile demographic closer to the edge.
Despite growing alarm, the Indian government has not yet brought in specific legislation to control or prohibit opinion exchange platforms altogether. Consumer organisations demanded immediate action: prohibition on social media advertising, recall of apps from big stores, cutting off payment channels, and launching criminal probes into deceptive promotion. The dilemma is how to balance innovation and accountability. As important as Fintech growth is, consumer protection cannot be sacrificed on the altar of market disruption. Unless a regulatory framework is quickly evolved, India risks sleepwalking into a digital gambling crisis.
Opinion trading platforms promise empowerment through prediction, but often deliver disillusionment. Wrapped in the jargon of investment and innovation, these sites flourish in a regulatory blind sport but are subjected to financial exploitation and psychological trauma. Until India institutes tight regulatory measures, using such sites is gambling in every possible sense. As courts have their say and public pressure mounts, the question is no longer whether these sites are risky, but whether India can hold out much longer against the risk.