US President Donald Trump has sharply ratcheted up pressure on India for its ongoing purchase of Russian oil, saying more punitive measures are on the way. In a meeting with Polish President Karol Nawrocki in the Oval Office, Trump deflected criticism that his administration had done nothing to hold Russia accountable.
He pointed to existing 'secondary sanctions' on India and promised that he has not yet unleashed 'phase-2' or 'phase-3' sanctions.
Trump underscored that placing these secondary sanctions, a cumulative 50% tariff, has already done tremendous harm to the Russian economy. 'That cost hundreds of billions of dollars to Russia,' he added.
On Aug. 27, the Trump administration placed a broad 50% tariff on Indian imports. That was a 25% 'reciprocal' tariff for general trade and a 25% one aimed at India's import of Russian oil.
India retaliated by calling the action 'unjustified' and 'unreasonable.' The Indian officials contend their energy policy is based on market forces and indigenous needs, not geopolitical gamesmanship.
Experts caution that the tariffs are also pushing Indian exports to the US, with the cheaper Russian oil injection providing India with temporary support for its balance of payments.
Urjit Patel, who has served as the RBI Governor and is currently an executive director at the IMF, stated that nearly 55% of India's exports are vulnerable to US tariffs, adding to the pressures in trade.
Strategic independence remains New Delhi's guiding star. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dug in his heels, saying pressure will increase, 'but we will endure it,' for the sake of safeguarding the interests of farmers and small industries.
Meanwhile, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, PM Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed their 'special and privileged' relationship. Modi is set to host Putin in December at the annual India–Russia summit, underscoring New Delhi’s pivot amid Washington’s pressure.
In the Trump administration, there are mixed signals for India. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are said to have pressed for warming up relations through a trade agreement, Trump rejected the idea unless India rolled back Russian oil imports.
Political advisor Peter Navarro's provocative rhetoric - accusing India of backing Russia's war - is further fueling tensions. Geopolitical experts worry that the US–India crisis has the potential to undermine regional alliances, such as the Quad, and push India further into strategic alignments with China and Russia.