The Indian rupee (INR) dropped to a record low of 92.00 per US dollar in early trade on Thursday. USD/INR opened at 91.99 versus a 91.78 close.
The move followed a firmer US dollar after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged. Meanwhile, foreign outflows, higher oil, and risk aversion kept pressure on INR vs USD.
Asian currencies weakened broadly as the greenback recovered from recent lows. Consequently, the rupee touched an all-time low as dollar demand stayed firm.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six peers, traded at 96.16, down 0.29%. Still, it rose from 4-1/2-year lows after the Fed held rates steady.
US Treasury yields climbed after the central bank said inflation remained elevated. It also noted that the labour market continued to stabilise, supporting the dollar’s tone.
Analysts flagged 92.00 as a key psychological and policy level for the rupee. Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may step in near 92.
Trivedi said support could appear near 91.70, while the next resistance sits at 92.20. That framework keeps the record zone central to the near-term rupee to dollar rate strategy.
Amit Pabari, Managing Director at CR Forex Advisors, said steady capital drain keeps dollar demand elevated. He said a sustained move above 92.00 could open 92.20–92.50, but RBI support may cap gains and pull USD/INR toward 91.00–91.20.
Ponmudi R, Chief Executive Officer of Enrich Money, said USD/INR remains in a higher-highs structure. In addition, he linked the bias to policy divergence, foreign portfolio outflows, and dollar-side macro stress. He said the positive bias holds above 91.90–92.10, with upside toward 92.50+ in the coming weeks.
Domestic equities traded lower amid weak global cues and persistent foreign selling. The Sensex fell 413.40 points, or 0.50%, to 81,931.28, while the Nifty 50 dropped 122.35 points, or 0.48%, to 25,220.40. Traders linked the pressure to foreign institutional investors (FII) continuing to pare exposure.
Crude added to the currency headwind as import costs rise with a weaker rupee. Brent gained 1.32% to $69.30 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 1.38% to $64.08.
Trade numbers also underscored the external strain on the rupee. Imports rose 8.7% to $63.55 billion in December 2025, with the trade deficit at $25.04 billion. Crude imports climbed about 6% to $14.4 billion, silver imports surged nearly 80% to $758 million, and gold imports fell 12% to $4.13 billion.
A weaker rupee makes imported items costlier, including crude oil, coal, chemicals, plastics, electronics, machinery, fertilisers, vegetable oils, and precious metals. Foreign travel and overseas education also become more expensive in dollar terms. However, remittances rise in rupee value, and exporters may gain rupee revenues, though import-heavy sectors can face margin pressure.
Nirmala Sitharaman presents the Economic Survey 2025–26 on Thursday, ahead of the February 1 Budget. Markets will focus on RBI signals, oil moves, and capital flows.