The US labour market is sending mixed signals, with September 2025 job additions and the unemployment rate moving in a manner that underlines underlying softness. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non‑farm payroll employment rose by 119,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked upwards to 4.4% from 4.3% in August. The jobs report was delayed by the 43‑day federal government shutdown, which disrupted data collection and processing.
Full data for October were not published; instead, October’s figures will be folded into the November report, scheduled for December.
The 119,000 gain in September was more than many economists had expected; many forecasts were for around 50,000 new jobs. While job creation did occur, the rise in the unemployment rate reflects that more people entered the labour force than found jobs.
The household survey component showed a roughly 470,000-person increase in the labour force, while employment increased by about 251,000.
Sector‑wise, the gains were concentrated in healthcare (+43,000), leisure & hospitality (+47,000, with restaurants & bars adding -37,000), and retail (-13,900). Offsetting this, there were job losses in transportation & warehousing (‑25,000), manufacturing (‑6,000), and professional & business services, notably temporary help, for September.
The report also showed revisions: August's job tally was revised from a modest gain of 22,000 to a loss of 4,000; July's increase was cut from 79,000 to 72,000.
Analysts interpret this data as evidence of a labor market that neither fires en masse nor hires robustly-a 'stickier' situation where growth is muted and slack may be building. Some economists argue this uptick in unemployment supports the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Others say the stronger‑than‑expected job gain argues against a cut, keeping policy uncertainty elevated. The US labour market created jobs in September, but the rise in the unemployment rate and weak revisions to prior months suggest caution.
Delayed data due to the government shutdown makes trend interpretation more complex and complicates the outlook for interest‐rate decisions.