The Buy Now, Pay Later sector has gained ground rather fast, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, during which online shopping and flexible payment options pushed the shift. The prospects of growth by the industry are superbly set with technological advancements and shifting consumer preferences. With regard to eMarketer, BNPL's total payment value is expected to reach $80.77 billion by 2024, indicating increasing consumer interest.
Furthermore, 11.2 million new customers will try other methods of payment in 2023. In the US, 32.6% of Gen Xers and 15.3% of baby boomers will use BNPL in 2024, which reflects the widespread appeal across demographics.
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is changing consumer purchasing habits in-store and online with flexible and hassle-free payment. This pay-now, pay-later payment alternative allows consumers to make purchases immediately and repay that amount in fixed instalments, which enhances the shopping experience. A report from IBS Intelligence says that BNPL payments in India are expected to grow by 89.5% per annum. The long-term outlook looks good at a CAGR of 54.3% from 2022 to 2028, indicating good growth in gross merchandise value.
With one billion consumers in the country and a steadily increasing base of people avoiding lending, BNPL is going to witness a mass disruption in payments in India. As the market unfolds, more significant global players are likely to enter the country and eventually form strategic partnerships or carry out mergers and acquisitions in the short to medium term. That growth curve translates to greater adoption by BNPL solutions among Indian customers, highlighting the importance of the financial product toward future changes in the ecosystem.
It is no surprise that one of the primary growth drivers of BNPL services has been the tremendous growth in e-commerce. As online shopping continues its march toward mainstream adoption, consumers are seeking painless payment solutions to enable them to shop easily and conveniently. BNPL, for example, enables shoppers to make larger purchases due to the ability to spread those payments over time; BNPL thus enhances average order values for retailers.
The IBEF states that the Indian e-commerce industry is transforming business activities across B2B, D2C, C2C, and C2B. The D2C market is expected to reach $60 billion by FY27, and the overall e-commerce market is expected to reach $325 billion by 2030. It marks the shift towards digital channels and changing consumer preferences.
Integration with mobile wallets and digital payment applications highly increased the popularity of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services because that eased the management of their purchases for consumers. Trends in this regard will elevate the user experience and even transaction volumes as the attractivity of the convenience of their use through the preferred channel of payment is being met.
BNPL will take the shape of a hybrid model where the convergence of payment and lending brings in significant growth according to a research study done by PhonePe and BCG. This sector is likely to grow at the rate of 35-40% in the next five years due to increased consumerism and online spending.
As maturation takes place in the BNPL market, it faces increasing regulatory scrutiny. Across the world, governments are imposing stricter regulations to protect consumers and ensure fair lending. In this regard, recently, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the United States has taken steps to put the BNPL services in its ambit by issuing on May 22, 2024, an interpretive rule applying certain consumer protections from credit card providers.
Such protections also include billing and reimbursement provisions, along with transparency clauses, that detail the responsibility of BNPL providers.
Regulatory interventions of this nature shift dynamics within an organization for BNPL providers; yet in the end, they promote more clarity and liability to consumers than what could happen in the short term and is, therefore, sufficient.
Technological advancement will have a great impact on the development of Buy Now, Pay Later services. Better data analytics and AI will enable providers to improve their credit risk models and offer individualized terms based on the consumer's behaviour. Personalization is essential for the different needs of customers.
For instance, I&M Bank launched a BNPL solution powered by AI on September 25, 2024. It offers customers the ability to raise amounts of up to KSh 350,000 in terms of flexible repayments that may go as far as 12 months. It, therefore, creates alternative sources of unsecured credit, which is immediate access across different merchant stores and e-commerce platforms at increasing demands for convenient payment solutions.
This concept of traditional Buy Now, Pay Later, due to such applications within health, travel, or educational sectors, is bound to change. For example, if healthcare providers would make medical service costs payable over time through a pay plan, then it gets available for consumers who can not source upfront. After all, this is simply just a transformation showing exactly how BNPL solutions become flexible nowadays.
BNPL startup BharatX acquired Zenifi, which is a healthcare-focused finance startup, on May 29, 2024, to enter the space of medical lending. Terms of the deal were undisclosed. This deal will complement the capabilities of BharatX in offering instant credits for healthcare services.
Several issues plague the BNPL industry that can derail it from its growth path:
Consumer Debt Levels: With more consumers using BNPL services, the danger of debt accumulation is high for those who cannot successfully handle multiple payment obligations. The default rates may be higher if not managed properly.
Market Saturation: New entrants enter this BNPL space at a very high rate, saturating this space with growing competition not only from fintech but also from traditional banks and other financial institutions; therefore, big players will have to innovate constantly just to be ahead of the competition.
Consumer Awareness: The awareness of BNPL services among consumers is increasing but most of the consumers are still unaware of how BNPL products work. Users will need to be educated about possible pitfalls such as late fees or interest charges to inculcate responsible usage.
Prospects for the Buy Now, Pay Later services appear bright as e-commerce is on the rise, and more consumers are demanding flexible payment options. With technological innovations enhancing user experience and changing regulatory frameworks set up to protect consumers, the BNPL market appears ready to expand further.
However, stakeholders need to stay alert to threats such as increasing consumer debt and saturation in the market. By the way, BNPL providers will succeed with this dynamic by focusing more on transparency, and responsible lending, and by using the technology to come up with more personalized offers.
Since time is running into 2024 and beyond, changing the tide of the mode of payment will be pretty important for consumers and also for providers to embrace to maximize the benefits of that innovative payment solution while the risks associated with its use are kept at bay.