A US-led push to reshape Venezuela’s oil sector has put Indian stakeholders back in focus. Analysts say India could recover unpaid proceeds and regain access to Venezuelan heavy crude if Washington loosens restrictions.
At the same time, the United States has kept an oil embargo in force after US forces detained President Nicolás Maduro. The embargo has driven exports to a halt and forced PDVSA to begin cutting output.
ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) operates the San Cristobal onshore field with state-run PDVSA. US sanctions blocked access to rigs, technology, and oilfield services, which also stalled dividend transfers.
Venezuela has not paid about $536 million in dividends on OVL’s 40% stake through 2014. Caracas has also withheld audits for later years, which has frozen settlement and pushed the total claim near $1 billion.
Officials say a compliant payment channel could let OVL recover dues from future oil revenues. OVL has also sought a specific US licence, similar to authorisations that have covered limited Chevron activity.
San Cristobal output has dropped to about 5,000–10,000 barrels per day. Sources say OVL could shift suitable rigs from ONGC’s Gujarat fields and lift output toward 80,000–100,000 barrels per day if rules ease.
Reliance Industries runs some of the world’s most complex refining capacities and can process heavy crude grades. Analysts say Venezuelan barrels can fit Indian refinery blends and support diesel and other transport fuels.
Before sanctions tightened, India imported more than 400,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude at peak levels. A restart would add a non-Middle East option and improve India’s leverage in crude price negotiations.
Other Indian refiners with high complexity could also benefit if supplies resume at scale. The list includes Nayara Energy, IOC, HPCL-Mittal Energy and MRPL, according to industry tracking.
Any reopening now depends on US policy choices and stability inside Venezuela. President Donald Trump has urged US oil companies to invest, yet he has also said the oil embargo remains in force.
PDVSA has asked multiple joint ventures to cut production as storage fills and diluent shortages grow. Reuters reported that even cargoes linked to Chevron ventures stopped moving in recent days.
Compliance experts also expect tight enforcement before broad relief. Kpler’s risk team has warned that authorities may target evasive trading networks, which could slow a return of Venezuelan exports to India over the coming months.